基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

LinkingPark: An automatic semantic table interpretation system

In this paper, we present LinkingPark, an automatic semantic annotation system for tabular data to knowledge graph matching. LinkingPark is designed as a modular framework which can handle Cell-Entity Annotation (CEA), Column-Type Annotation (CTA), and Columns-Property Annotation (CPA) altogether. It is built upon our previous SemTab 2020 system, which won the 2nd prize among 28 different teams after four rounds of evaluations. Moreover, the system is unsupervised, stand-alone, and flexible for multilingual support. Its backend offers an efficient RESTful API for programmatic access, as well as an Excel Add-in for ease of use. Users can interact with LinkingPark in near real-time, further demonstrating its efficiency.     

Determining robust reaction kinetics from limited data

Accurate chemical kinetics are essential for reactor design and operation. However, despite recent advances in “big data” approaches, availability of kinetic data is often limited in industrial practice. Herein, we present a comparative proof-of-concept study for kinetic parameter estimation from limited data. Cross-validation (CV) is implemented to nonlinear least-squares (LS) fitting and evaluated against Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and genetic algorithm (GA) routines using synthetic data generated from a simple model reaction. As expected, conventional LS is fastest but least accurate in predicting true kinetics. MCMC and GA are effective for larger data sets but tend to overfit to noise for limited data. LS-CV strongly outperforms these methods at much reduced computational cost, especially for significant noise. Our findings suggest that implementation of CV with conventional regression provides an efficient approach to kinetic parameter estimation with high accuracy, robustness against noise, and only minimal increase in complexity.     

Machine Learning-Based Two-Stage Data Selection Scheme for Long-Term Influenza Forecasting

One popular strategy to reduce the enormous number of illnesses and deaths from a seasonal influenza pandemic is to obtain the influenza vaccine on time. Usually, vaccine production preparation must be done at least six months in advance, and accurate long-term influenza forecasting is essential for this. Although diverse machine learning models have been proposed for influenza forecasting, they focus on short-term forecasting, and their performance is too dependent on input variables. For a country’s long-term influenza forecasting, typical surveillance data are known to be more effective than diverse external data on the Internet. We propose a two-stage data selection scheme for worldwide surveillance data to construct a long-term forecasting model for influenza in the target country. In the first stage, using a simple forecasting model based on the country’s surveillance data, we measured the change in performance by adding surveillance data from other countries, shifted by up to 52 weeks. In the second stage, for each set of surveillance data sorted by accuracy, we incrementally added data as input if the data have a positive effect on the performance of the forecasting model in the first stage. Using the selected surveillance data, we trained a new long-term forecasting model for influenza and perform influenza forecasting for the target country. We conducted extensive experiments using six machine learning models for the three target countries to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. We report some of the results.     

Efficient fault diagnosis method of PEMFC thermal management system for various current densities

The temperature of a fuel cell has a considerable impact on the saturation of a membrane, electrochemical reaction speed, and durability. So thermal management is considered one of the critical issues in polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells. Therefore, the reliability of the thermal management system is also crucial for the performance and durability of a fuel cell system. In this work, a methodology for component-level fault diagnosis of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell thermal management system for various current densities is proposed. Specifically, this study suggests fault diagnosis using limited data, based on an experimental approach. Normal and five component-level fault states are diagnosed with a support vector machine model using temperature, pressure, and fan control signal data. The effects of training data at different operating current densities on fault diagnosis are analyzed. The effects of data preprocessing method are investigated, and the cause of misdiagnosis is analyzed. On this basis, diagnosis results show that the proposed methodology can realize efficient component-level fault diagnosis using limited data. The diagnosis accuracy is over 92% when the residual basis scaling method is used, and data at the highest operating current density is used to train the support vector machine.     

A combination of near-infrared hyperspectral imaging with two-dimensional correlation analysis for monitoring the content of biogenic amines in mutton

The study investigated the feasibility of using a combination of near-infrared hyperspectral imaging (NIR-HSI) with two-dimensional correlation (2DCOS) analysis for rapid and non-destructive determination of the content of biogenic amines in mutton during refrigerated storage. Total contents of biogenic amines (TBA) were used as the perturbation. By analysing the synchronous and asynchronous two-dimensional correlation spectra, sensitive variables that were closely related to TBA contents were obtained. The results showed that the wavelengths in the spectra range of 1002–1335 nm were the research area for the detection of TBA contents in mutton. The least-squares support vector machines (LSSVM) model based on effective wavelengths selected by competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS) from 2DCOS analysis showed excellent results, with correlation coefficient in prediction (Rp) of 0.91, root mean square error in prediction (RMSEP) of 1.67 mg kg⁻¹ and the ratio of performance deviation (RPD) of 2.76. The research demonstrated that the combination of NIR-HSI and 2DCOS could be used as an effective method for monitoring the content of biogenic amines in mutton.     

Structural and operational management of Turkish airports: a bootstrap data envelopment analysis of efficiency

This paper explores the structural and operational dimensions of the efficiencies of airports. The two-stage procedure is suggested to assess the efficiencies of airports in this study. In the first-stage, Classification and Regression Tree, which is one of the machine-learning approaches used to divide the airports into homogeneous and thus comparable sub-groups. In the second stage, the bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach obtains more precise structural and operational efficiency scores. To illustrate the proposed framework use, we applied it to a real case associated with Turkish airports. The results demonstrate that this framework presents a more comprehensive assessment of airport performance rather than conventional data envelopment analysis models. Moreover, it provides to show the deficiencies of the structural and operational management of airports. The findings can help anywhere airport authorities as well as Turkish airport authorities.     

Stream-Based Data Sampling Mechanism for Process Object

Process object is the instance of process. Vertexes and edges are in the graph of process object. There are different types of the object itself and the associations between object. For the large-scale data, there are many changes reflected. Recently, how to find appropriate real-time data for process object becomes a hot research topic. Data sampling is a kind of finding c hanges o f p rocess o bjects. There i s r equirements f or s ampling to be adaptive to underlying distribution of data stream. In this paper, we have proposed a adaptive data sampling mechanism to find a ppropriate d ata t o m odeling. F irst o f all, we use concept drift to make the partition of the life cycle of process object. Then, entity community detection is proposed to find changes. Finally, we propose stream-based real-time optimization of data sampling. Contributions of this paper are concept drift, community detection, and stream-based real-time computing. Experiments show the effectiveness and feasibility of our proposed adaptive data sampling mechanism for process object.     

基于间隔理论的过采样集成算法

针对传统集成算法不适用于不平衡数据分类的问题，提出基于间隔理论的AdaBoost算法（MOSBoost）。首先通过预训练得到原始样本的间隔；然后依据间隔排序对少类样本进行启发式复制，从而形成新的平衡样本集；最后将平衡样本集输入AdaBoost算法进行训练以得到最终集成分类器。在UCI数据集上进行测试实验，利用F-measure和G-mean两个准则对MOSBoost、AdaBoost、随机过采样AdaBoost（ROSBoost）和随机降采样AdaBoost（RDSBoost）四种算法进行评价。实验结果表明，MOSBoost算法分类性能优于其他三种算法，其中，相对于AdaBoost算法，MOSBoost算法在F-measure和G-mean准则下分别提升了8.4%和6.2%。